Searching for a Peaceful Solution

By Kate Brannen

Despite a new security drive and an increase in troops, deadly bombings and sectarian violence continue in Iraq, making it desperately important for states throughout the region to find a strategy for solving the crisis.

The Iraq Study Group Report, released in December, predicted that ongoing chaos in Iraq could “open a Pandora’s box of problems—including the radicalization of populations, mass movements of populations, and regime changes—that might take decades to play out.”

The Bush administration continues to push for a unified Iraq, but some foreign policy experts and members of Congress believe that a peaceful solution lies instead in decentralization – or even partition of Iraq.

In a New York Times op-ed piece last May, Sen. Joseph Biden (D-Del) and Leslie H. Gelb, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, argued for a decentralized Iraq that would include “three largely autonomous regions.” Their piece, “Unity through autonomy in Iraq,” dismissed the current government of national unity as powerless to stop the disintegration of the state. In its place, they argued, Iraq should be divided into Kurdish, Sunni and Shiite regions, which would each be responsible for their own internal security and domestic laws.

However, the bipartisan Iraq Study Group, appointed by Congress, rejected this approach as too risky.

“Because Iraq’s population is not neatly separated, regional boundaries cannot be easily drawn. All eighteen Iraqi provinces have mixed populations, as do Baghdad and most other major cities in Iraq,” the group said in its report. If a decentralization plan were implemented, the group predicted, Iraq would face mass population movements, growth of rogue militias, and possibly even ethnic cleansing.

While the study group acknowledged the possibility of partition, it stated, “We do not believe the United States should support this course as a policy goal or impose this outcome on the Iraqi state.”

With solutions eluding even the most seasoned diplomats, the Iraq crisis has become a case study for students of conflict resolution – including students at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs (SIPA). Last month, the school set up a day-long exercise designed to brainstorm diplomatic strategies for peace.

The SIPA exercise quickly illuminated the main obstacles – including the little-noticed potential for the Kurdish question to ignite new violence throughout the region. In the SIPA exercise, students playing the role of Kurdish representatives from Turkey and Iraq united to seize control of the oil-rich city of Kirkuk. The student-Kurds declared Kirkuk’s independence, but failed to win diplomatic recognition from student-diplomats representing neighboring countries, who feared an independent Kurdistan would cause the collapse of Iraq.

The SIPA scenario was not far-fetched, say foreign policy experts. A recent report by the International Crisis Group warned that, “As all eyes are turned toward efforts to stabilize Iraq, the conflict that has been percolating in Kirkuk remains dangerous and dangerously neglected.”

Many experts agree that regional stability depends to an alarming degree on who controls Kirkuk and its oil wealth.

Earlier this month the Iraqi government convened a one-day conference in Baghdad to bring together officials from the region’s stakeholders.

“Iraq has become a frontline battlefield,” Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki told the assembled diplomats as he appealed for an end to outside support for armed factions within Iraq.

“Confrontation of terrorism, dear brothers, requires ceasing any form of financial and media support and religious cover, as well as logistical support and provision of arms and men that would turn out to be explosive tools killing our children, women and elders and bombing our mosques and churches,” al Maliki said.

While no solid accomplishments emerged from the meeting, participating countries said they found it to be constructive. Follow-up talks are planned, but in the meantime the killing in Iraq continues, making the need for a solution all the more urgent.